Ryanair has adjusted its passenger target for fiscal 2027, reducing it from 216 million to 214 million in response to high unhedged jet-fuel costs, which have led to a cut in winter capacity. The airline is grappling with jet fuel prices that currently stand at around $140 a barrel, prompting concerns that prolonged high prices could significantly increase European short-haul airfares. As Ryanair manages its capacity during the typically less busy winter season, it anticipates that passenger traffic between November and March will remain largely unchanged compared to the previous year.
To mitigate the impact of current fuel prices, Ryanair has hedged approximately 80% of its fiscal 2027 fuel needs through March 2027 at an average price of $67 a barrel. This strategy provides the airline with a buffer against the current high fuel costs. The decision to reduce winter capacity is expected to decrease seasonal losses by an estimated €70 million to €100 million. In light of this, Ryanair has already removed five aircraft from its Charleroi base in Belgium and cut about two million seats from its Brussels schedule for winter 2026 and summer 2027.
The airline has also sounded a warning to competitors, suggesting that airlines with less fuel hedging could face increased financial difficulties if high oil prices persist. Despite the challenges posed by the winter season, Ryanair remains optimistic about its summer performance, with expectations of over 5% growth in summer traffic. In August, passenger numbers increased by 6% year-on-year, reaching 22.2 million, while the load factor held steady at 96%. During the month, Ryanair operated over 120,500 flights, although more than 400 flights were cancelled due to eruptions from Mount Etna.
Looking ahead to fiscal 2027, Ryanair anticipates its profit after tax will not reach the record levels achieved in the previous financial year. However, the airline has refrained from offering detailed profit guidance at this stage, citing the need for further evaluation. The company continues to navigate the challenges of fluctuating fuel prices while maintaining a focus on strategic growth and capacity management.